Executive summary
33%
of enterprise applications forecast to include agentic AI by 2028, per Gartner (Oct 2024)
<1%
had this capability at the time Gartner published the forecast
Key conclusions
- Most AI governance discussions look back at systems already deployed. For capital expenditure planning, the more useful discussion looks forward, at the decision rights you will grant to equipment you have not yet bought.
- Treat the 33 percent figure as a planning horizon. It has not yet changed anything on your site.
- In the next equipment contract cycle, write in four terms: a named action boundary, a role-based escalation path, a logging requirement and a stated fallback state.
Most governance discussions about AI in industrial settings look back. A system is already deployed, and the question is how to oversee what it already does. For an operator planning capital expenditure over the next few equipment cycles, the more useful discussion looks forward. It asks which decision rights you will grant to a system you have not yet bought, and when.
Gartner's widely cited prediction, published in October 2024, is that by 2028 a third of enterprise applications will include agentic AI capable of semi-autonomous action. At the time of the forecast, less than 1 percent did. This figure is an analyst's projection about software in general. It says nothing about what any specific machine on your site will be authorised to do. Use it as a planning horizon.
Write four terms into equipment contracts for the 2027 cycle
- A named boundary for autonomous action: a specific list of what the equipment may decide and execute without a human step.
- An escalation path to a person named by role. Our articles on agentic software argue for the same requirement, and it applies directly to agentic control of physical equipment.
- A logging requirement that allows any autonomous action to be reconstructed. Set the retention period by the consequence of the action, regardless of the vendor default.
- A stated fallback: exactly what the machine does between an anomaly and a human response. 'Stops safely' is a starting point. The contract should also state which state the machine stops in and what must happen before it resumes.
These terms belong in procurement as well as governance
If a capability is not in the contract, it becomes a change order later, priced by the vendor whose equipment is already on your site. The 2028 forecast is a reason to write the boundary into the next contract cycle now, while it is still a specification decision.
You do not need to believe the 33 percent figure precisely. You need to accept the direction it describes, and include the cost of governance work in the equipment budget before equipment arrives that already makes decisions on its own.
